Use of simulation techniques for profit forecasting of saving programs

Abstract

The article shows simulation techniques as a tool for extrapolation of long-term financial variables to support choice of savings form. Special attention has been paid to techniques used in the case of incomplete information or lack of it, that is in uncertainty conditions, accompanying modelling of system behaviour in the distant future. The experiment has been performed on the stochastic model in which both some stimulants included and also decomposed in time course of reaction are of random charcter.The simulated dependent variable is the future level of savings which is possible to obtain after investing money for many years in a chosen form of secure capital investment. Whereas the set of stimulants includes number of financial variables and those describing standards of saver living. In this article the author focuses on interpretation of the obtained simulation results.Theoretical reflections and conclusions that arise from the analysis of performed simulation are included in listing of positive and negative effects of using simulation techniques in the process of of investment decisions rationalization.